Chapter 80: That Time I Bet Big to Pay Off Debt in South America

TL: Skye

"Your Excellency, the government bonds have sold out!"

Ricardo's voice boomed through the office.

"The entire first tranche, ten billion dollars, completely sold out! And word is it went within thirty minutes of opening."

It was, in a word, a jackpot.

For an emerging nation whose international credit rating had only just climbed to BB to sell off its bonds in an instant, and a colossal ten billion dollars' worth at that, was simply unprecedented.

But Yu-jin, who had predicted exactly this, merely sipped his coffee, not the least bit surprised.

"Is that so?"

"Yes! It was oversubscribed more than three times over. At this rate, the second tranche is certain to sell out as well!"

"Good news. Next... ah, one moment."

Bzzzzzt-

Yu-jin's personal cell phone was vibrating.

The caller was Park Munsu, the Korean Ambassador to San Marcos.

"Yes, Ambassador."

[I heard the news that the first bond issuance sold out.]

"It's all thanks to the Korean government."

[Not at all. They sold out because the terms were good. The government did nothing.]

Park Munsu's voice carried a mix of congratulations and deflation.

[The truth is, on the Blue House's orders, the National Pension Service was preparing to buy up a large block of this issuance. They judged the returns to be a sure thing. But...]

"......"

[I'm told retail investors and institutions swept up the entire supply before they could even get in the door.]

"Everyone's quick on the draw."

[So much so that the pension fund's chairman contacted me, asking me to request that some of the next round be set aside for them.]

"Of course. We'll reserve a separate allotment for the pension fund in the next issuance."

The Korean pension fund is a titan among titans of the capital markets, boasting more than a trillion dollars in assets.

A request from them? Stripping off the very underwear he was wearing and handing it over wouldn't have been out of the question.

[Once again, congratulations.]

"Thank you, Ambassador."

The moment he hung up, Yu-jin noticed a text had come in from Chairman Jung of Hyunhwa.

[Congratulations, Your Excellency. I tried to buy some with my personal funds, but they sold out before I could even move.]

Yu-jin chuckled and sent a reply.

Ten billion dollars. Roughly thirteen trillion won. San Marcos's treasury had filled to the brim in a single stroke.

An ordinary leader would have been thinking about governance, laying down infrastructure or expanding the welfare budget with this money, but Yu-jin was different.

'The interest? I'll just win it back and pay it off. Win it back.'

He had not the slightest intention of simply spending this money.

At an hour when everyone had gone home for the day,

I quietly summoned Senior Secretary for Finance Ricardo, Chief of Staff Isabella, and SIA Director Lucio to my office.

"My apologies for the late hour."

"Not at all, Your Excellency. Merely being summoned by you is an honor."

In the heavy silence, I spoke first.

"First, I want to thank Senior Secretary Ricardo for all his hard work on this."

"You're too kind. It was all thanks to your foresight, Your Excellency."

Ricardo bowed his head, looking bashful.

"Do you plan to invest the full ten billion dollars in the power expansion project?"

"There's still work to be done."

I shook my head at Isabella's question.

"The money has its destination, yes... but it'll be a while before we break ground on the solar plant, won't it?"

"That's right. Between posting the tender and selecting a contractor, it'll take three months at minimum."

"So for those three months, I'm thinking of growing the money a little."

"Pardon? Growing it?"

"I intend to short the dollar with the bond proceeds."

"......!!"

Ricardo shot up from his seat in horror.

"Y-Your Excellency! You'd speculate with the national budget?!"

"It's not speculation. It's investment."

"Absolutely not! We cannot gamble with the people's debt!"

Ricardo objected, practically foaming at the mouth.

A perfectly natural reaction.

Taking the nation's precious money and betting it on derivatives, and on a market decline, no less.

For the man responsible for San Marcos's finances, it was heart-attack material.

But I had conviction on my side.

"Senior Secretary Ricardo, calm down. I haven't even brought up the leverage yet."

"L-Leverage?! Absolutely out of the question!"

Just as Ricardo clutched the back of his neck and looked ready to keel over, Lucio cut in from the side, his voice low and weighty.

"Senior Secretary Ricardo. You go too far."

"What?"

"When has His Excellency ever been wrong? If you can't trust him, then keep quiet."

"He's right."

Isabella added coldly.

"There is always a reason behind His Excellency's decisions. He sees something we don't."

Under the pair's rebuke, Ricardo shut his mouth.

Lucio looked at me with steady eyes and asked,

"Your Excellency, I believe there must be firm grounds for your conviction. May I ask what they are?"

I nodded.

"Of course."

I walked over to the map hanging on one wall of the office.

"What's the state of the American economy right now? Inflation is coming under control, and the employment numbers are softening. The Drump administration's doctrine is America First. In other words, its focus is on cutting the US trade deficit."

"......"

"Drump is itching to pressure the Fed into cutting rates. Just a few days ago, he was attacking the Fed Chair on Twitter."

"Ah..."

"The market is already reacting. Give it three months. The United States will enter a rate-cut cycle, and the dollar will inevitably fall. All we have to do is ride that current."

A logical, clear-cut analysis.

In truth, there existed grounds far more certain than any analysis.

[That old geezer running the Fed has been nothing but trouble lately. Rates need to come down so businesses can breathe, so more money can flow through the market, but he just won't listen. But you watch. At next month's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), he'll listen to me. I've got a very... certain card I plan to wave around. If you've got any sense, you'll 'invest' too. Politicians like us have to fatten up our personal funds at times like these. Makes for a comfortable retirement.]

The contents of my phone call with Drump.

What this certain card of his was, I had no idea, but one thing at least was clear.

The president of the world's most powerful nation was dead set on cutting rates and dragging down the dollar.

And he'd told me about it himself. Where on earth would I find insider information more solid than that?

"A certain... opportunity, then."

Lucio nodded.

Even Ricardo, who had been so opposed, couldn't find a word of rebuttal and sat there tongue-tied.

"Right? So I'm thinking we go inverse at three-times leverage..."

Use 3x leverage, take exactly twenty percent, and get out.

That would be enough to offset a fair chunk of the interest on the bond issuance. That was the plan.

That was when it happened. When Isabella, who had been listening quietly all this while, opened her mouth.

"Twenty times."

"...Pardon?"

I stared at her, wondering if I'd misheard.

Isabella answered, her clear eyes brimming with madness.

"Let's make it twenty-times leverage, Your Excellency."

"......"

"Hold on, Chief Isabella. At twenty times... if the dollar rises just five percent, the principal drops to zero?"

Ricardo waved his hands in alarm, but Isabella was resolute.

"His Excellency cannot fail, can he?"

"Even so, investment calls for caution..."

"This is the man who found an oil field and settled nine billion dollars of debt for eight hundred million. You think he can't call something as trivial as an exchange rate? If we're investing anyway, I believe we should lock in a decisive profit."

"......"

Lucio, standing beside her, answered in my place.

"What about ten times?"

"Hm?"

"If we take too much, the Americans might start paying attention. So how about ten times?"

"Not a bad idea. There's sense in that."

And just like that, Senior Secretary Ricardo, who had been arguing against it this whole time, did a complete one-eighty.

"It seems I had it all wrong. If Your Excellency points at the sun and calls it the moon, I should believe it. And yet this wretch dared, even for a moment, to doubt you."

As if he'd caught it from Isabella, Ricardo spoke with madness blazing in his eyes.

"I too support ten-times leverage. If the dollar drops just ten percent, we make ten billion dollars."

"......"

I stared blankly at Ricardo.

Was this the same finance chief who'd been foaming at the mouth in protest just moments ago?

This middle-aged man with the glittering eyes, shouting ten times in my face?

'No.'

Ricardo, you're supposed to be the one stopping this.

The crucible of madness Isabella and Lucio had brewed up had swept in even Ricardo, the last sane man in the room, and corrupted him too.

"W-Wait a moment. Let's all calm down."

I waved my hands, cold sweat trickling down.

"I don't think my prediction is wrong, but the market is a living thing... it throws fits sometimes, stages temporary rebounds. Say we open the short and the dollar spikes ten percent, even briefly? We could get hit with a margin call on the spot."

Despite my desperate persuasion, Isabella didn't bat an eye.

"Then it simply has to not rise."

"...What?"

"Exactly. On the flip side, if it falls just ten percent, we take one hundred percent. Why worry about it rising?"

"If it works, it's an investment; it's only gambling if it fails, is it not?"

"No, that's..."

"Your Excellency."

Isabella stared straight through me. There wasn't a sliver of doubt in her eyes.

"We believe in you, Your Excellency. Ten billion dollars? If we lose it, we earn it back. But if we let this chance slip and fail to make another ten billion, wouldn't that be the greater loss?"

"Exactly!"

Ricardo chimed in, slamming the desk with a bang.

"Your Excellency! I, Ricardo, finally understand! For a poor country to become rich, it takes bold decisions like this! Three times? Five times? That's coward's work. Once a man has drawn his sword, he must cut something, even if it's only a radish!" [TL: A Korean proverb meaning once you've committed to something, you must follow through, even if the result is small.]

It's not a sword we'd be drawing here. It's the nation's foundations we might be ripping out, roots and all.

It was enough to drive a man insane.

Three pairs of eyes blazed fiercely at me. They felt like zealots praying for a miracle.

But.

'They're not entirely wrong, though.'

Now that I'd heard it out loud, it made a certain kind of sense.

Why had I planned to win the money back in the first place?

To shave down, even a little, the interest burden on the bonds we'd issued.

But what if we won big, like Ricardo said?

The interest burden on every bond we would ever issue going forward would vanish entirely.

'Dammit... it's all on you, Bro Drump. Seriously.'

I squeezed my eyes shut, then opened them.

My heart was pounding, but I answered with all the outward calm I could fake.

"...Very well."

I stepped forward, putting on my most solemn expression.

"If your faith in me runs that deep... then I shall repay it."

"Oooh...!"

"But there is one condition."

I fixed the three of them with a chilly stare and raised my index finger to my lips.

"Today's decision goes with us to the grave."

"Yes, Your Excellency!!!"

Swallowing a sigh, I gave my final orders.

"Senior Secretary Ricardo. Look into inverse dollar products, right away."

"Yes, understood!"

"Director Lucio, assess any risks we might face. And Chief of Staff Isabella, find a way to maximize our returns."

And so I committed to the bet of a lifetime, with the nation's future riding on the line.

*****

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