Chapter 303 - 86: The Yom Kippur War’s Business Opportunities

Chapter 303: Chapter 86: The Yom Kippur War’s Business Opportunities

Werner tensed, but his face remained impassive.

"Well, there were a few Western businessmen who wanted to talk business, but it was all just normal trade," he said. "Don’t worry, Comrade Von Brown. I know where to draw the line."

"That’s good." Von Brown looked at him. "Your position is very important, and you deal with all sorts of people. I’m just reminding you to be careful. Western intelligence agencies love to recruit people like you."

"I understand," Werner said. "If anyone suspicious contacts me, I will report it immediately."

"Very good." Von Brown smiled. "I trust you."

The car stopped in front of Werner’s apartment building.

Werner picked up his luggage and got out of the car.

"Get some rest," Von Brown said. "We’ll meet again in a few days to discuss your next work arrangements."

"Okay."

The car drove away, disappearing around the corner.

Werner stood below, looking up at his window.

Fourth floor, third from the left.

The curtains were drawn, so he couldn’t see inside.

He suddenly had a strange premonition—

’Someone is waiting for me behind those curtains.’

He hurried up the stairs, pulled out his key, and opened the door.

The living room light was on.

A woman was sitting on the sofa.

"Anna?" Werner was stunned.

Anna stood up and walked toward him.

"Surprised?" she smiled.

Werner put down his luggage and hugged her tightly.

"When did you get here?"

"This afternoon," Anna said. "I heard you were coming back today, so I came to wait for you."

"I brought you a gift." Werner released her and took a small box out of his suitcase.

"What is it?"

"Open it and see."

Anna opened the box. Inside was a necklace: a platinum chain with a small Statue of Liberty pendant.

"I bought it in New York," Werner said.

"Help me put it on."

Werner took the necklace and put it around her neck.

Anna walked to the mirror and looked at her reflection. The necklace shimmered faintly in the light.

"It’s beautiful." She turned, stood on her tiptoes, and kissed Werner.

The kiss was long and deep, filled with all the longing of their time apart.

Embracing, they made their way from the living room to the bedroom.

Clothes fell to the floor, one by one.

Outside the window, night gradually fell over Berlin.

*************

「September 25, 1973, East Berlin.」

Werner sat in his office at Koko Headquarters, holding a copy of the *New German Newspaper*.

It was East Germany’s official newspaper. He read it every morning, but most of the time, he just glanced at the front-page headline and then tossed it aside.

Today was no different. The front-page headline was about Anger’s visit to Moscow, accompanied by a photo of Anger and Brezhnev shaking hands. Werner flipped to the international section.

A small, unremarkable news brief caught his eye.

"Egypt and Syria are conducting large-scale military exercises in their border regions. The Israeli Defense Forces remain on high alert. The Arab Countries condemn Israel’s aggressive policies and call for the international community to take action..."

Werner’s finger froze on the page.

’Military exercises. A border buildup.’

He put down the newspaper and leaned back in his chair, his mind racing.

’Egypt. Syria. Israel.’

Then, like a bolt of lightning, a memory struck him.

’The Yom Kippur War.’

On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syria would launch a surprise attack on Israel on Yom Kippur, the most important holiday for the Jewish people.

After the war broke out, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries would impose an oil embargo on Western nations that supported Israel, while also drastically cutting production.

The price of oil would skyrocket from 3 US Dollars to 12 US Dollars per barrel within a few months, triggering one of the most severe economic crises since World War II.

’The first oil crisis.’

Werner’s heart began to race.

He looked at the calendar. September 25. Less than two weeks until October 6.

’Two weeks.’

He shot up from his chair and walked to the window.

Outside, East Berlin was gray and gloomy, with few pedestrians on the streets.

A crazy plan was forming in Werner’s mind.

’The oil crisis is about to erupt. Oil prices will skyrocket. The global economy will fall into stagflation. Western stock markets will crash. Gold will soar.’

’This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.’

Werner lit a cigarette and took a deep drag. The smoke rose slowly in the sunlight.

’I need to seize this opportunity. Not just for myself, but for Koko as well.’

’But how do I pull it off?’

’Buy and hoard crude oil directly? Not realistic.’

Werner’s mind raced with calculations.

’Oil isn’t gold; you can’t just store it in a safe.’

’To hoard oil, I’d need huge storage tanks or chartered tankers.’

’A supertanker can hold hundreds of thousands of tons, but the charter fees are astronomical. Plus, it’s too big a target and would attract unwanted attention.’

’More importantly, the logistics costs would be staggering. Shipping from the Middle East to Europe, bypassing the Suez Canal (which will be closed during the war), means going around the Cape of Good Hope. A journey of tens of thousands of kilometers... The freight costs alone would eat up more than half the profits.’

’And if I actually transported the oil, there’s still the problem of storage.’

’East Germany doesn’t have large-scale storage facilities. Requisitioning warehouses and converting them into tanks? There’s no time, and it would be far too conspicuous.’

’No, buying crude oil directly is just stupid.’

Werner stubbed out his cigarette, and a flash of inspiration struck him.

’Futures contracts.’

’That’s it. Don’t buy the oil itself, buy oil forward contracts.’

Although in 1973 there wasn’t a modern crude oil futures market yet, there were plenty of oil forward contracts on the commodity markets in London and New York.

He could sign the contracts before the price surge, locking in the low price of 3 US Dollars per barrel. Then, when the price soared to 10 or 12 US Dollars, he could directly sell the delivery rights to refineries or traders in desperate need of oil.

’I wouldn’t have to actually move any oil. I’d just be flipping the contracts.’

’That’s the smart play. It ties up less capital, it’s flexible, and the profit margin is high. And most importantly—it’s discreet.’

’If I really went and chartered tankers or built storage tanks, it would cause too much of a stir. But signing a few paper contracts? That would look like a normal business transaction.’

Werner sat back in his chair and began to organize his thoughts.

Step one: Convince Gunter to get Koko’s approval for him to go to London and sign oil contracts.

This would require a reasonable justification: to guarantee East Germany’s energy supply and diversify risk, they couldn’t rely solely on the Soviet Union.

If handled properly, Koko could make tens of millions of US Dollars, and he himself could get a large commission.

Step two: Use his own money to make another investment—short the stock market and go long on gold.

This would be a completely private operation, unrelated to Koko.

The oil crisis would trigger a global stock market crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would fall from its current 900 points to below 600.

At the same time, the price of gold would skyrocket from its current 100 US Dollars an ounce. Buy put options and gold futures, and use leverage to magnify the returns.

Step three: Liquidate. Mortgage his property in West Germany, take out a loan from a Swiss Bank, and scrape together at least one million US Dollars in startup capital.

Step four: Speed. There were less than two weeks until the war broke out.

Werner looked at the plan on the paper, his gaze growing more and more determined.

’This is a huge gamble.’

’But I won’t lose.’

He picked up the phone and dialed Gunter’s internal line.

"Comrade Gunter, may I come up? I have something important to report."

************

Inside Gunter’s office, they closed the door.

"What’s so urgent?" Gunter asked.

Werner placed the *New German Newspaper* on his desk and pointed to the news brief about the Middle East.

"Have you seen today’s international news?"

Gunter glanced at it. "Egypt and Syria holding military drills? What’s so strange about that? There’s always some squabble or another in the Middle East."

"What if it’s not just a military drill?" Werner said, his tone serious. "What if the situation truly escalates?"

Gunter frowned.

"What are you getting at?"

"I’m saying that the situation in the Middle East is very unstable," Werner said, sitting down. "Comrade Gunter, have you ever considered what would happen if a large-scale conflict really broke out in the Middle East?"

"What?"

"Oil," Werner said. "The Arab Countries control most of the world’s oil supply. If they impose an embargo on the West for political reasons, or drastically cut production, the price of oil will skyrocket."