Chapter 228

< World War II - The Curtain of Winter (2) >

December 26, 1941

Tokyo, Empire of Japan – Imperial General Headquarters

In the presence of the Prime Minister of the Empire of Japan, Tojo Hideki, and the high command of the Japanese Army at the Imperial General Headquarters, Lieutenant Colonel Nishiura Susumu, founder of the Total War Research Institute, was presenting his report.

“This is the conclusion our institute’s students have reached after repeated war game simulations.

First, war with America appears imminent, but should it occur, we must aim for a prolonged war.”

The collective gazes of the Prime Minister and the high-ranking officials of the Imperial General Headquarters made Susumu tense.

“Second, the idea of seizing victory with a surprise attack and forcing a peace treaty in a short war is a notion that completely disregards the circumstances of the United States of America.”

Seeing the expressions of the Imperial General Headquarters officials, whose ranks were far beyond his own, immediately harden, Susumu flinched.

Susumu swallowed dryly but continued to speak with force.

“Japan exhibits a strong will to fight through the Samurai spirit, but due to the tax increases that have continued since the Second Sino-Japanese War, it is uncertain whether the entire populace can muster sufficient resolve for a prolonged war-”

“It does not matter, as the white people are inherently lacking in grit and are mentally weak.”

As he was cut off by Suzuki Teiichi, Tojo Hideki’s closest aide, Susumu felt a surge of frustration.

“It is difficult to believe that America will surrender so meekly, as they have their own Yankee spirit.

Furthermore, the plan to wage war by securing the Philippines and making maximum use of the resources from the Southern Resource Area has already been complicated by Germany’s U-boats-”

“Enough. I did not sponsor this institute just to listen to words steeped in defeatism.

State your conclusion.”

When even Admiral Yamamoto Isoroku, the Commander-in-Chief of the Combined Fleet, finally stepped in, Susumu felt his energy drain away.

‘For what purpose did we spend months so fiercely researching a total war scenario?’

“…The results of the months-long war games, where the students of the Total War Research Institute simulated every possible scenario, are contained in the documents we have distributed. It is with great regret that I report the conclusion of the Total War Research Institute is that the Empire of Japan will face certain defeat if we open hostilities with America.”

A dead silence fell.

“…In light of these research findings, you must avoid war with America.”

As everyone stood flustered and Susumu felt like a defeated general awaiting his sentence, Tojo Hideki slowly opened his mouth.

“…While your efforts in this research have been great, gentlemen, this is ultimately an exercise conducted at a desk.

Actual combat is different from what you imagine. In the Russo-Japanese War, no one thought Japan would win.

But we did. Even then, Japan was forced to rise up due to the Triple Intervention; we did not fight with the thought that we could win.”

Susumu wanted to argue that the situation now was different from the Russo-Japanese War, but he lacked the audacity to cut off the Prime Minister.

“War does not always go according to plan, and the unexpected can bring victory.

Therefore, while I cannot call your achievements mere armchair theorizing, they have failed to reflect that element of surprise. Gentlemen, do not speak recklessly of the results of these war games.”

“W-We will bear that in mind, Mr. Prime Minister.”

Susumu could say no more and bowed his head.

The conclusion reached after months of young, brilliant minds in Japan putting their heads together and losing sleep had been dismissed by Japan’s high command as defeatist armchair theorizing.

As Susumu retreated, disheartened, Tojo Hideki raised his voice.

“The cursed German submarines are despicably attacking the supplies of the Great Empire of Japan, and the filthy Yankees are hiding them while blockading the Philippine waters and feigning ignorance.”

Initially, when America signed a treaty with the Allied Powers and decided to support Free Russia and dispatch volunteer soldiers, the Empire of Japan had wanted to avoid a war with the United States.

Although America had blockaded the Philippine waters, it had not intervened in any other way, and Japan had tried to think positively, predicting that the US at least did not want war with the Empire of Japan.

However, the German U-boat fleet led by Dönitz was truly vicious. With the sea lanes already narrowed by America's declaration of a blockade, U-boats began to swarm the area, raiding Japan’s transport fleets.

Japan’s patience soon reached its limit.

When Japan protested to America, the US simply feigned ignorance, claiming they knew nothing about it.

But were they to believe that the German submarine fleet was operating all the way from India to the Philippines? Was he supposed to believe that?

To top it all off, an American newspaper published a political cartoon depicting a pack of wolves running on the sea, gleefully tearing apart flailing samurai.

The members of the Imperial General Headquarters who saw it felt their blood boiling with rage.

What good was the Southern Resource Area if there was no way to transport its resources to the home country!

And America, which was not only tolerating but encouraging this situation, and had even intervened on the Soviet Front against their ally, did not want war with Japan? Impossible.

Even if they didn't want war, this was an arrogance that could only stem from the conviction that the great Empire of Japan would not dare to attack them.

“Once the Soviet Union completely collapses, it is obvious that the German Army will advance into China and Manchuria. Yet the Yankees have openly begun supporting the Allied Forces against our ally, the Soviet Union.

It is clear where their target will be after the fall of the Soviet Union, and if that happens, it’s the end for us!”

It was too late to stop now anyway. If he surrendered here, both the Empire of Japan and he, the Prime Minister, would be finished.

Therefore, he had to act before the Soviet Union collapsed.

“Fortunately, His Majesty the Emperor’s fleet has defeated the fleet of that old lion, and they will not be able to move for some time! Now is the time! Only now!”

If not now, not even a sliver of a chance for victory would remain for the Empire of Japan.

Therefore, now was the moment to activate the plan prepared to counter America in case of an emergency.

“Now is the time to unleash the Samurai spirit of the great Empire of Japan! We will sink the fleet of the unsuspecting Yankees, fortify the occupied territories, and repeat a cycle of attrition interception and defensive warfare.

Then the Allied Powers, already exhausted from the war in Europe, will eventually sue for an armistice!”

That was the only way for the Empire of Japan to win.

Even if it meant denying reality and engaging in all sorts of wishful thinking to create the best possible scenario imaginable, no other path was visible.

“A slight material disadvantage is no problem if we have the power of a resolute spirit. The weak mentality of those white people can never overcome the Yamato people, who are armed with the world's strongest spiritual power! Long live the Emperor! For the victory of the Great Empire of Japan!”

At the Prime Minister’s shout, everyone in the Imperial General Headquarters nodded with grim determination, as if pledging to fight to the death, and yelled.

“Long live the Emperor!”

“The spiritual power of the Yamato people is the strongest in the world!”

Even though none of them were the ones who would go to the battlefield to bleed and die.

-

December 29, 1941

Berlin, Capital of Germany – Cipher Bureau

Having spent a peaceful Christmas with Claudia, with the new year just around the corner, I visited the Cipher Bureau and exchanged greetings with the General of Communications, Erich Fellgiebel.

“Welcome, Minister of Defense.”

“A pleasure to see you, General Fellgiebel.”

During the German Civil War, he had worked clandestinely to ensure our propaganda war wasn't blocked by the Nazis, and he had also looked out for Claudia when she was briefly serving in the military before the election.

After shaking hands with the bespectacled Fellgiebel, I extended my hand to the young man standing next to him.

“Doctor Zuse.”

“It is an honor, Minister of Defense!”

Konrad Zuse, who was about my age, accepted the handshake as if it were a great honor, making me feel a bit awkward.

He might look unassuming, but this man was Germany’s top computer engineer and the genius who created the control system for the R1.

I first turned my gaze to General Erich Fellgiebel.

“I hear the upgrade to the Enigma is complete.”

“Yes, Minister.

We have added four more rotors compared to the existing model, further strengthening the encryption. We plan to complete the replacement of the old devices by February of next year.”

“Excellent work.”

While we weren't at war with the cheat-code-wielding Britain and America in information warfare, we had been making various investments to prepare for it.

Japan was one thing, but it would be a huge problem if all our intelligence leaked to the Soviet Union.

Still, the thing I actually considered more important than the Enigma upgrade was something else…

“Is the work on decrypting Japan’s code systems still in progress?”

“Yes, Minister.

Thanks to the people sent over from Joseon, or the Republic of Korea, we have figured out their language system, but we expect it will take more time.”

“Hmm…”

As I frowned slightly at Fellgiebel’s answer, Zuse spoke up.

“Still, progress will accelerate once the new computer is complete. Britain’s vacuum tube technology was certainly fascinating.

Now that I’ve combined it with my electromechanical computer technology, the finished product will demonstrate performance far superior to the previous ones.”

“I look forward to it.

The German Navy is clearly inferior to the Japanese Navy, and with the Royal Navy having taken a major blow, we must move with the utmost caution. We have high expectations for the Cipher Bureau, so please deliver results.”

“Haha. We will keep that in mind, Minister! Doctor Braun’s team also has high hopes for computer engineering, and we are working day and night!”

“The Ministry of Labour won’t be happy about that.”

We exchanged jokes and let out a soft laugh.

…When was the transistor developed again? It’s a real shame I’m no engineer and don’t know these things.

I knew full well how important computer engineering would be in the future, not just for the war, so it would be best to provide them with as much support as possible.

I half-listened to Zuse’s excited technical explanations and became lost in thought.

Our situation was much better than in the original history, but to be frank, the German Navy’s strength, excluding the U-boats, ranked as the weakest among America, Britain, and Germany.

So, if we wanted to end the war quickly, America couldn't suffer the same devastating damage as in the original history, even if the attack on Pearl Harbor happened.

I didn't want to stand by and let people die in a disaster I knew was coming. The Hindenburg incident was more than enough for preventable tragedies.

On December 7th, the date of the attack on Pearl Harbor in the original history, I had waited up, barely sleeping, but as expected, with the timeline changed and no Axis Powers or Hull Note, the attack didn't happen on the same day.

But if my prediction was correct, it was only a matter of time.

Admiral Dönitz’s U-boat fleet was steadily moving that clock forward, and they had already detected suspicious movement from the Japanese Navy and reported it to the home country.

It would be great if America would listen to our opinion…

We’ve done all we can.

I suppose we have no choice but to trust FDR.

-

December 29, 1941

Washington D.

C., Capital of the United States – The White House

The President of the United States of America, Wendell Willkie, sat at his desk in his office and picked up the document that had been delivered to him.

[Analysis Report on the Possibility and Targets of a Surprise Attack by the Empire of Japan on the United States of America]

Willkie’s eyebrows twitched at the title as he began to read through the document carefully.

The document began by stating that the cornered Empire of Japan might attempt a surprise attack on America to gain an upper hand in the Pacific War, fortify its defenses, and then seek peace negotiations, especially while the Royal Navy was unable to act due to heavy damage to many of its capital ships.

It suggested that they would likely attempt this through a surprise attack on the Philippines and Pearl Harbor, the home base of the US Pacific Fleet. The document pointed out that France had already demonstrated in Europe that a surprise attack with aircraft or submarines could achieve significant results.

The analysis also estimated that, based on the performance shown by the Imperial Japanese Navy in the Battle of Ceylon, they had more than enough capability to launch a surprise attack on the Philippines or Pearl Harbor using aircraft carriers.

It concluded by noting that the Allied submarine fleet had identified that the Empire of Japan’s capital ships were gathering in the East Indies and that if a surprise attack from this fleet were to occur, the American situation—with most of its capital ships concentrated in one place—was at risk of suffering a fatal blow.

Willkie read the document with a furrowed brow, then checked the signatories at the end.

Minister of Defense of Germany, Dietrich Schacht

Commander-in-Chief of the Reichsmarine, Erich Raeder

“…Well, I’ll be…”

Reports warning of a possible Japanese surprise attack had been submitted within the US before.

But they had all been dismissed as absurd.

But this was a document sent by the de facto general administrator of the Allied Forces, with the consent of his own navy’s supreme commander…

Normally, this too would have been dismissed as far-fetched, but the authority of the signatories made it impossible to ignore outright.

Willkie tapped his fingers on his chair—tok, tok—then looked up and spoke.

“What do you think?”

“Frankly, it’s utterly unpleasant, Mr.

President.”

Secretary of State Taft looked extremely displeased.

They had essentially been dragged along by the German side during negotiations, and not only had they blockaded the Philippine waters, but they had also promised berthing rights for the U-boats…

And now the Germans were worried that Japan, unable to utilize the Southern Resource Area it had occupied due to America’s blockade and the U-boats’ activities, would mistakenly believe the US was preparing for war and launch a surprise attack?

The US and the Republican Party themselves had no intention of going to war, though they were willing to use sanctions and pressure to bring Japan to compromise.

But Japan, which was much weaker than America and already at war with the Allies, would misjudge America’s intentions and launch a surprise attack? Did that even make sense?

And even if it did, wasn't it absurd for Germany, which had shamelessly secured the Philippine blockade and U-boat berthing rights, to be offering this kind of concern?

“It is true we were pushed back somewhat by the German side in the negotiations, but I suspect those arrogant Germans still mistake the United States of America for the second-rate power they saw in the last great war.

We cannot be played according to their intentions.”

“…I understand the Secretary of State’s opinion.

You may be excused.”

Taft glanced at FDR, who was sitting in a wheelchair beside him, then turned and left.

Willkie let out a soft sigh and turned his gaze to Roosevelt.

“Franklin.”

“Wendell.”

“…What do you think?”

Roosevelt was quiet for a moment before speaking.

“The fact that we accommodated Germany to some extent in these negotiations was because you followed my opinion.”

Willkie did not deny it.

Although FDR had requested it, it was he himself who had allowed FDR, a man despised by the Republican Party, to be included in the special envoy delegation.

“To be honest, I am a bit taken aback myself…”

Roosevelt let out a hollow laugh.

It was Dietrich Schacht himself who had proposed giving U-boats berthing rights in the Philippines when it seemed America was in a bind, unable to prepare 500,000 volunteer soldiers at once.

But what if Germany had anticipated that Japan would act this way if that happened and had intentionally proposed those terms?

It meant he had been one-upped by the young idealist he had taken him for.

Willkie sighed.

“The blockade of the Philippine waters was going to happen sooner or later anyway.

Since public opinion forced us to promise Lend-Lease and loans to Free Russia, we needed the Allied Powers to recognize and support Free Russia in order to collect the debt they owe us.”

When the cards America had prepared for that purpose turned out to be of little use to Germany, it was only natural that the negotiations shifted to German control.

It wasn't because the special envoy was incompetent, but because America had misjudged Germany’s situation.

“So, let’s set aside the issue of being resentful toward Germany for now.

The real problem is…”

Willkie held up the document and waved it.

“…to determine whether they sent this as a courtesy of their own, or to mislead us in order to drag America deeper into the war.”

Roosevelt remained silent for a moment before speaking.

“…I don’t think we can completely ignore it.

There were those in the military who expressed similar opinions, though they weren't in the mainstream.”

“Is that so…”

Willkie’s voice trailed off.

Logically, it made no sense.

The Empire of Japan was already at war with the Allied Powers.

While it might be able to gain an advantage against the Allied navies, there was no way Japan could win if America also joined in.

Japan’s allies in Europe had all collapsed.

The Soviet Union was also clearly being pushed back by the Allied Forces. To open another front while in a state of utter isolation was not a decision that could be made with common sense.

But what if something like that did happen?

There was already a precedent for an enemy being pushed into a corner by a surprise attack that defied everyone’s common sense.

When La Rocque’s France attacked Britain, no one thought it was a situation where France could attack Britain.

But Halifax had thought that way, and he had been caught off guard, earning him the infamy of being the Prime Minister who had delivered a day of betrayal to the British Empire.

“As you know, my position within the Republican Party is not very strong.”

“I know, Mr. President.”

Wendell Willkie was a politician who had switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party.

He had only become a candidate as an alternative because public opinion differed greatly from the mainstream Republican stance.

And he was a president who had been elected by a stroke of luck, thanks to the self-destruction of the Democratic Party.

He received less interest from Americans than the young German politician leading the war in distant Europe, and he was even less popular than the defeated FDR.

A president criticized with "this wouldn't have happened if FDR were in charge" for causing a bloody suppression, even though it was a communist protest and had been unavoidable.

“If I were to take the Allied opinion seriously again and order preparations for a response, going against the party’s opinion, I would become even more isolated, wouldn’t I?”

“Probably so, Mr.

President.”

But if those preparations turned out to be correct, the exact opposite would happen.

Willkie let out a self-deprecating smile, feeling as if he somehow understood what kind of idea the Empire of Japan might come up with.

“I have nowhere lower to fall, so what the hell, let’s do it.

There’s nothing more to lose, and if we get lucky and hit the jackpot, all the better, right?”

Hearing Willkie’s words, Roosevelt grinned.

“To the president who has taken on a heavy burden, may God bless the United States of America.”