Chapter 778: Chaos Is a Ladder

Roosevelt began to show Leo the other side of the coin.

“The think tanks in Washington believe that as long as they drop a few missiles and launch a few surgical strikes, just like they did with Saddam or Gaddafi back in the day, the other side will surrender and beg for mercy on their knees. It’s too naive. External military strikes are often a potent poison.

“Instead of causing the enemy to collapse, they ignite extreme nationalism. Factions that were originally divided internally will quickly band together in the face of a foreign invasion. Hardliners will seize the opportunity to purge the moderates and consolidate their rule. Moreover, modern warfare is no longer the large-scale, massed-army combat of World War II. The enemy doesn’t need aircraft carriers, nor do they need stealth fighters. They have missiles, drones, and a proxy network spread across the entire Middle East.

“The moment the first shot is fired, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Shia militias—these wolf packs lurking in the shadows—will simultaneously launch their attacks. Israel will be submerged in a deluge of rockets, US Army bases will be assaulted, and the shipping lanes of the Red Sea will be severed.

“The President thinks he can end the battle within the two months mandated by the War Powers Act and return in triumph like a hero. But he will ultimately find that he has dragged the entire Middle East, and even the United States itself, into a bottomless quagmire.”

As Leo listened, images of the Vietnam and Afghanistan wars flashed through his mind. Those were the scars of the United States.

“Second, and most fatally, is the economic backlash.” Roosevelt’s voice grew grave. “Leo, what you were just looking at was the Hormuz Strait. That is the global energy choke point. Those strategists and energy advisors in the White House certainly know this is the biggest risk factor. Striking Iran will cause oil prices to spike, which will in turn drive up inflation, ultimately leading to public hardship and a loss of votes.”

“Then why are they still going to war?” Leo asked, bewildered.

“Because they’ve undoubtedly run the numbers,” Roosevelt explained. “They believe the risks are controllable.

“First, they’ve judged that Iran lacks the capability to blockade the strait long-term. Maintaining military control over the strait under the relentless bombardment of the US Army would be incredibly difficult. Furthermore, if they completely seal the strait, Iran’s own oil revenue will be cut off, which would be political suicide for their regime. Therefore, Washington is betting that Iran will only resort to short-term harassment and localized disruptions, rather than a full-scale blockade.

“Second, the United States itself is not the weakest link here. Over eighty percent of the oil and liquefied natural gas shipped out through Hormuz is destined for Asia and Europe. The impact on the United States would be more of a financial ripple effect from rising oil prices, rather than a physical supply cutoff.

“Moreover, Washington possesses a complete toolkit to hedge against surging oil prices. They can tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rope in allies to release their own reserves, pressure OPEC to increase production, and even accelerate domestic shale oil exports. Their calculation is this: oil prices will rise, but they won’t spiral out of control.

“Compared to the strategic benefits of eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities, reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, and reinforcing the hegemony of the United States, this minor cost to the economy and public livelihood is worth bearing.”

Roosevelt sneered. “They might even think that during a crisis, it is easier for the President to project the image of a strongman, which could offset some of the dissatisfaction caused by rising oil prices. In their eyes, the public’s livelihood is just one variable among many, and it doesn’t carry much weight. However, they have underestimated the panic of the market.”

He stared fixedly at Leo, continuing, “When the first missile falls, all rational analysis will become obsolete. The surge in oil prices will be more violent than they anticipate, and the resurgence of inflation will be far more persistent than their simulations predict. This public fury will wash back over the United States mainland like a tsunami.

“And then there is morality. A sudden attack like this, without authorization from the United Nations and lacking a clear basis in international law, will subject the United States to immense moral pressure. Although our allies in Europe need our natural gas, they are also terrified of being dragged into a war.

“They will accuse the United States of recklessness, and the ensuing refugee waves and energy crises will breed alienation toward Washington. The President will find that what he ignited was not the celebratory fireworks of victory, but a powder keg that will blow off his own hands.”

“So…” Leo’s voice was low. “The President thinks he’s found the secret recipe for reelection. He thinks a foreign war will solve all his approval rating problems, but in reality, he has swallowed a highly toxic pill. Once this war breaks out, the country will face unprecedented hyperinflation and a total collapse of the supply chain.”

Leo looked up, a trace of complex emotion flashing through his eyes. “This is a disaster. And I, knowing full well that disaster is imminent, choose to remain silent—even secretly calculating how to profit from it. It makes me feel like a war profiteer, a cold-blooded accomplice.”

Roosevelt’s voice grew weathered and profound. “Leo, you take peace for granted. But in this world, war is the norm. Open the history books of humanity; there hasn’t been a single month where the world was entirely at peace. There is no era of peace, only countries at peace.

“You are an American; you must accept the way this country develops. Its prosperity, its hegemony, has always been built upon the conquest and plunder of others. This is the destiny of the Empire, and it is the original sin of the Empire.

“Do you feel sick? Do you feel angry? That’s fine, but it changes nothing. If you want to change all of this, if you want to alter the course of this massive ship, you must climb to a higher position and take hold of the helm.

“Right now, all you can do is make good use of this storm. This is the perfect opportunity for you to accumulate your chips. You must use these blood-stained chips in exchange for the power to change the long-standing historical inertia of this country.”

Leo remained silent for a long time before letting out a sigh. “That will be difficult, Mr. President. Fighting the inherent inertia deeply rooted at the bedrock of a nation is harder than fighting any specific enemy.”

“Yes, it is difficult,” Roosevelt smiled. “If it were easy, why would the two of us need to work together?

“Mark my words, Leo. Chaos is a ladder. When the peaceful order collapses, when rules become obsolete, and when the majority of people are paralyzed by panic, that is exactly when the ambitious and the ruthless rise. The more chaotic the situation, the greater your opportunity.”

Roosevelt’s voice grew impassioned. “When the world burns, whoever holds the water is the King! And right now, not only do you hold the water, but you also wield the hammer to forge weapons.

“Therefore, Leo. Pittsburgh has once again waited for her World War II. You must seize this opportunity.”