Chapter 760 - 362: Intuitive Misguidance (Part 2)

"I told you, you can’t deceive me," You Su replied calmly.

The puzzled look on the Daoist flower faded away, replaced by a deeper smile as if the confusion was just a facade:

"When did I deceive you?"

"You’re not wrong, if it truly were a fifty-fifty chance, someone like me would definitely stick with my initial choice without hesitation. But knowing that the other path has a higher probability of reaching the end and yet choosing to stick to the original choice, that’s not the making of a great talent, that’s foolishness."

"So you mean these last two boxes aren’t a fifty-fifty chance of guessing right?" The Daoist leaned forward, seemingly eager to hear You Su’s impending answer, "Even if one hasn’t studied the ’Ten Books of Calculation,’ even an old lady selling vegetables by the roadside understands this principle—it’s a fifty-fifty chance between two choices, right or wrong."

But You Su didn’t directly answer the Daoist’s question: "The purpose of letting these refugees play this game wasn’t out of kindness, but to teach them arithmetic?"

"You should answer my question first." The Daoist maintained his smile, but his gaze grew more intense.

You Su furrowed his brow slightly, leaning back a bit. He was only to be sold to Chuixue Tower, but not truly to be sold inside; after all, he was someone who couldn’t be bent even by Kong Yue, a man more beautiful than women.

"The reason I will change is simple, because changing doubles the probability of guessing correctly compared to not changing, so naturally there’s no reason not to choose it."

You Su explained an extremely counterintuitive reason in a light-hearted manner.

"Oh? Why?" The Daoist leaned even closer.

"There are three compartments in total, and the silver could be in any one of them. If it were in the first one I picked, no matter which one you open, changing my choice would be wrong. But the opposite situation isn’t just as simple as the silver not being in the first one; it might be in the second or third. Thus there are three possible situations, and after you open an empty slot, the chance of guessing right by changing is two-thirds, while not changing is only one-third."

"The old lady selling vegetables by the roadside wouldn’t understand your explanation." The Daoist wasn’t ready to give up yet.

This sparked a persistent spirit in You Su, for the old lady selling vegetables might be sharper than his junior sister. The painful memories of teaching arithmetic to his junior sister for three years at the Mandarin Duck Sword Sect were still fresh.

"If we change it to a hundred compartments, even the most stubborn fool would choose to change."

"Go on."

"From one to a hundred, pick any number you like."

The Daoist thought for a moment, "Eighty-eight."

"I have a hundred compartments here, but only one contains the silver. You picked the eighty-eighth compartment, and then I opened ninety-eight empty ones for you, leaving only the first one unopened. Now, will you change or not change to get this silver?"

"Of course, I’d change!" The Daoist blurted out.

"Why?" You Su countered, "The remaining two compartments, there’s simply one with and one without; changing or not changing both gives a fifty-fifty chance. Why not trust your initial choice?"

"Because... this is just appearance."

The Daoist finally leaned back against the ornate chair, his gaze filled with such appreciation that it was almost overflowing, "The reason my choice of the eighty-eighth compartment can remain isn’t because the silver happens to be there, but because I chose it initially. Yet the first compartment remains because you know where the silver is. So essentially, as long as my initial choice of eighty-eight was wrong, changing would definitely lead to the correct guess, unless my first guess of eighty-eight was right, but that’s a one in a hundred chance—a one percent probability."

"So, although it seems there are only two choices left, in reality, the other choice is the one left after ninety-eight incorrect options have been eliminated, while the one you initially picked was just a random choice among the hundred. By extension, the same logic applies to three compartments."

As You Su finished summarizing, he was startled to see the Daoist lifting up a teapot and personally pouring him a cup of tea.

Inwardly, You Su was extremely surprised; this Daoist must be a Venerable of the Void Realm, yet he was willing to pour tea for someone whose background was unknown?

If the Daoist didn’t know the rationale behind the thing and was just expressing gratitude, it would be understandable, but he was clearly testing me...

"Under whom did you study before?" The Daoist asked with a tone of concern.

You Su pursed his lips and chose not to answer.

Seeing that You Su was reluctant to speak, the Daoist raised his eyebrows and said:

"Speak boldly, it’s nothing more than the few old scholars from the Nanyang Continent or Central Yuan which I don’t recognize? But if we’re really discussing the way of arithmetic, Nanyang Continent with Celestial Revelation Divine Mountain always keen on calculating the heavens stands slightly superior to the other four. I see you’re so adept at calculations at such a young age, there’s no way Central Yuan taught you; you must be the closed-door disciple of Ziwei?"

Hearing this, You Su also raised an eyebrow; he knew the Ziwei Daoist the Daoist referred to, who was none other than Ziwei Venerable, the Grand Elder of the Qiming Sect in Nanyang Continent. The person was a master in Ziwei Doushu, Eight Trigrams and Six Lines, Qimen Dunjia, and so on, reaching the pinnacle of today’s arithmetic way.

Similarly, as a revered master figure, his fame is slightly inferior to the Grand Elder Celestial Technique Chief due to two reasons: first, the popularity of skills as opposed to the lesser reach of arithmetic arts, and second, Ziwei Venerable hasn’t broadly spread any works, as all his works are obscure and have a high reading threshold, whereas most works of the Celestial Technique Chief can be understood even by a Meridian Passage Realm cultivator.

Yet, Ziwei Venerable’s renown is only slightly less than the Grand Elder and in terms of immortal status, it’s on par with the Grand Elder.

But for such a respectable person, the Daoist dared to call him "that old Daoist" with no sense of reverence.

"Not so?" The Daoist looked puzzled after observing You Su’s reaction and pushed the tea he poured for You Su, "Could it be the ancient divination master?"

You Su glanced at the tea cup and pursed his lips, "I don’t know them, and I haven’t studied arithmetic."

Who would have thought the Daoist would suddenly sit up sharply, looking at You Su with disbelief, his gaze surpassing the desire of a man for a woman, as if seeing the answer to what he had sought his whole life.

"Indeed... indeed! From the first moment I saw you, I realized there was something extraordinary about you!"

The Daoist started pacing by himself, "Not because of your cultivation, but because when I explained the rules, although their ears were listening, everyone was staring at the silver! Only you didn’t look at the silver at all! So only you could see through the appearance! The reward isn’t important, finding the rule is what matters the most! Those old scholars just don’t understand! Intuition is the biggest obstacle in the way of arithmetic!"

By the end of his speech, the Daoist seemed to be talking to himself, as excited as if he had solved an unsolvable problem.

You Su shrugged slightly, secretly thinking, it wasn’t that he didn’t want to look at the silver while listening, but he just couldn’t see it clearly. Listening carefully wasn’t due to seriousness, but a habit bred from being blind...

"So, you let the refugees play this game to prove something?"

"Exactly! Those old scholars have been sitting on high for too long! Even though there are so many fallacies in their books born from intuition, they refuse to admit it! I want to prove that even among commoners who haven’t studied arithmetic, some can overcome the misguidance of intuition to find the correct answer! They stand in those lofty academic positions, not because they’re truly more intelligent, but because they’ve learned more than those they see as fools!"

With a strong sway of his colorful sleeves, the Daoist had a graceful demeanor like a peacock spreading its wings.

"But you know I’m pretending; I can’t prove your theory." You Su drank his tea, pouring some cold water on the Daoist’s enthusiasm.

"No, you can." The Daoist slightly bowed, eyes shining with determination:

"Don’t you agree, Dabang?"